Search results for "Credible interval"
showing 6 items of 6 documents
Hirschsprung's disease prevalence in Europe: A register based study
2014
Background: Hirschsprung's disease is a congenital gut motility disorder, characterised by the absence of the enteric ganglion cells along the distal gut. The aim of this study was to describe the epidemiology of Hirschsprung's disease, including additional congenital anomalies, total prevalence, trends, and association with maternal age. Methods: Cases of Hirschsprung's disease delivered during 1980 to 2009 notified to 31 European Surveillance of Congenital Anomaly registers formed the population-based case-series. Prevalence rates and 95% confidence intervals were calculated as the number of cases per 10,000 births. Multilevel Poisson regression was performed to investigate trends in prev…
Improved Frequentist Prediction Intervals for Autoregressive Models by Simulation
2015
It is well known that the so called plug-in prediction intervals for autoregressive processes, with Gaussian disturbances, are too narrow, i.e. the coverage probabilities fall below the nominal ones. However, simulation experiments show that the formulas borrowed from the ordinary linear regression theory yield one-step prediction intervals, which have coverage probabilities very close to what is claimed. From a Bayesian point of view the resulting intervals are posterior predictive intervals when uniform priors are assumed for both autoregressive coefficients and logarithm of the disturbance variance. This finding opens the path how to treat multi-step prediction intervals which are obtain…
Desigualdades y mortalidad por cirrosis en varones (Zaragoza, 1996-2003)
2011
ResumenObjetivosAnalizar diferencias geográficas en la mortalidad por cirrosis hepática, en varones, en la provincia de Zaragoza, y su posible asociación con indicadores socioeconómicos, así como identificar la adecuación, en el ámbito rural, del índice de privación del proyecto MEDEA.MétodosLa unidad geográfica de análisis para Zaragoza capital fue la sección censal, y para el resto de la provincia el municipio. Para cada unidad de análisis se calculó la razón de mortalidad estandarizada cruda y suavizada mediante un modelo lineal generalizado mixto bayesiano. Se calculó un índice sintético de privación y se incluyó en el modelo en cuartiles. También se realizó el análisis exploratorio inc…
Conflict in Somalia: impact on child undernutrition
2017
Background: In Somalia, protracted conflict and persistent drought have caused population displacement and livelihood destruction. As a result, there is widespread child malnutrition. We aimed to determine the effects of conflict on wasting and stunting among children aged 6-59 months in Somalia 2007–2010.\ud \ud Methods: Data were from household nutritional surveys from 2007 to 2010, with 1,066 clusters covering 73,778 children, the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED) project and remote sensing. We used Bayesian hierarchical spatial-temporal regression methods to examine the effects of conflict on wasting and stunting. A preliminary model included individual, household and envir…
On the measured lifetime of light hypernuclei 3ΛH and 4ΛH
2014
A statistical combination of the experimental lifetime estimations available in the literatures is performed for 3 Λ H and 4 Λ H, including several recent measurements. The combined average values of the lifetime for 3 Λ H and 4 Λ H are respectively 216−16+19 ps and 192−18+20 ps with a reduced χ2 of 0.89 and 0.48. A new insight into the lifetime estimation of the HypHI Phase 0 experiment by a Bayesian approach is also presented. In this approach, several different prior distributions including the combination of previous lifetime data and a Jeffrey prior are used. The principal mode and the smallest credible interval at 68% of the posterior distribution, given by the prior belief of the pre…
Intrinsic credible regions: An objective Bayesian approach to interval estimation
2005
This paper definesintrinsic credible regions, a method to produce objective Bayesian credible regions which only depends on the assumed model and the available data.Lowest posterior loss (LPL) regions are defined as Bayesian credible regions which contain values of minimum posterior expected loss: they depend both on the loss function and on the prior specification. An invariant, information-theory based loss function, theintrinsic discrepancy is argued to be appropriate for scientific communication. Intrinsic credible regions are the lowest posterior loss regions with respect to the intrinsic discrepancy loss and the appropriate reference prior. The proposed procedure is completely general…